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Dave Adler - American League - December 9
Jays sign Burnett, look for continued high Dom, GB%...
The Blue Jays continued their holiday shopping by signing A.J. Burnett (RHP, TOR) to a five-year, $55 million deal. Burnett has returned to form after undergoing Tommy John surgery in early 2003. His 12-12 record belies the fact that he was dominant in 2005 - his PQS DOM/DIS split was 63%/9%, a continuation of his strong 2004 (53%/16%). He also did a great job of keeping the ball on the ground last year, cutting his fly ball rate (FB%) by a third. Combined with an Expected Home Run Rate (hr/f) of between 8-10% the last few years, it's apparent that Burnett's low hr/9 is no fluke.
Tom Todaro - National League - December 9
Soriano may be less valuable in Washington...
The Nationals made a splash at the Winter Meetings, acquiring Alfonso Soriano from TEX in exchange for Brad Wilkerson, Terrmel Sledge, and minor league pitcher Armando Galarraga. Soriano thus moves out of homer-happy Texas; how will he fare in the National League?
Ray Murphy - The Speculator - December 9
Roster construction in a post-steroid world
In November, MLB announced a more stringent drug testing policy. From a fanalytic perspective, the "penalties" section of the new agreement is an attention-grabber. However, in the forthcoming Baseball Forecaster, Ron Shandler makes a compelling argument as to why the new agreement falls short of addressing the core problem of performance-enhancing drug use in the game. In short, many holes remain in the testing process, leaving little reason to panic or make wholesale changes to the way we approach our games. Still, on the off chance that there are significant suspensions in 2006, let's speculate on some roster-construction strategies that might help insulate us from the fallout.
Jay Pobis - Simulation Gaming - December 9
The Scoresheet Hot Stove
As snow falls outside the window it's difficult to imagine much that can be done that's relevant to baseball. Especially with Scoresheet, which has such a clear definition of the season's beginning with the release of the player lists in mid-January, there just doesn't seem to be much to do. Here are some nuggets of coal to help keep your fires burning through the off-season.
Futures - December 9
Rule 5 Draft Report
The Rule 5 Draft is held each year at baseball's Winter Meeting. The players that are eligible to be selected are players who aren't on their team's 40-man roster, and meet one of three criteria... 1) Players with prior major league experience, 2) players who have played three seasons in the minors who were at least 19 years old on June 5 prior to their first contract, and 3) players who have played four seasons in the minors who were at least 18 years old on June 5 prior to their first contract.
Players selected during the Major League portion of the Draft cost the selecting team $50,000 and must remain on the 25-man major league roster for the following season or be offered back to their original team for $25,000. There is also a Minor League portion of the Rule 5 Draft, where Triple-A players are selected for $12,000 and Double-A players are selected for $4,000. These players need not be kept on that team's roster for the following season.
On Deck at Baseball HQ...
RON SHANDLER: Mean power
GERALD HOLMES: 2006 talent pool observations
BUYERS GUIDES: Non-roster invites
SCOUTING: Top third base prospects
GAMES ANALYSIS: Building a long-term core
... and much more!
