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Bradley starting strong in Texas
May 17, 2008--Tom Kephart
Milton Bradley (OF, TEX), is coming off a 2007 season where he displayed strong skills performance despite being plagued by injury and inconsistent playing time. Bradley has started strong in all respects in his new AL home. Bradley achieved career highs in Slugging, OPS, FB%, and PX in 2007.
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% Eye PX ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== === 2003 377 .321 .303 15 81 0.88 127 2004 516 .267 .259 12 76 0.58 102 2005 283 .290 .305 8 83 0.53 117 2006 351 .276 .275 13 81 0.78 99 2007 209 .306 .290 13 80 0.73 141 2008 122 .311 .322 17 77 0.89 189
Bradley's 2008 production has started strong, and appears fully supported by the BPI's. His Eye is stronger than in most previous seasons, rivaling his previous career best, posted in 2003. Contact rate is down but the Walk rate is very strong, accounting for the uptick in Eye.
Bradley is currently benefitting from a 36% hit rate, which is likely unsustainable, as his hit rate has fluctuated within a narrow range (31-33%) over the previous four seasons. XBA, however, indicates that his BA is not founded on fortune alone. The career-peak 189 PX Bradley is currently flashing is clearly driving the .322 XBA. The 18% HR/F rate is identical with that Bradley displayed in 2007, and may be sustainable since Bradley is playing his home games in a very power-friendly venue with a 20% advantage for LHB. As a switch-hitter, Bradley stands to benefit from his new home park.
Bradley's relatively modest production in recent years is primarily a product of injuries, as noted by Market Watch analyst Michael Roy in April. This is a player whose skills are strong, and may be growing. Provided he can stay healthy, and that is indeed a big if, Bradley may reward those who have rostered him with a career-year.
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SPECULATOR -- Ray Murphy
5 players to sell low
The advice is ubiquitous at this time of year, both here and at other sites: "He's a good buy-low candidate". "Sell high while you can". Some would say the words have lost all meaning, as executing this strategy is now impossible in all but the most elementary of leagues (as discussed recently in our forums).
If that is in fact the case in your environment, what are your alternatives? One option is to turn the strategy on its ear. But to do that, you need an accurate judgment of what hot starters are still worth paying a premium for, and which slow starters should be dumped for pennies on the draft-day dollar. Here are five choices for sell low candidates...
More free reads from the Baseball HQ Library:
Fanalytics: Tourniquet
Rotisserie Gaming: Recovering from a slow start
Speed Buyers Guide: Slow starters
Rotisserie Gaming: The arithmetic of panic
Fanalytics: PQS and qERA - New frontiers in pitcher evaluation
Fanalytics: Quint-Inning - The Official Rules
Fanalytics: The great myths of projective accuracy
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Subscriber-Only Features
Ron Shandler's Fanalytics -- May 17
A new beginning
After months of speculation, rumors and "secret" messages, the news is finally out. And it is good.
Tom Kephart - American League - May 17
Bradley starts strong in Texas
Milton Bradley (OF, TEX) is coming off a 2007 season where he displayed strong skills performance despite being plagued by injury and inconsistent playing time. Bradley has started strong in all respects in his new AL home. Bradley achieved career highs in Slugging, OPS, FB%, and PX in 2007, and may prove capable of matching, or even exceeding, most of those numbers in 2008.
Joe Hoffer - National League - May 17
Jeremy Hermida flashing glimpses of potential?
The top story of the 2008 Major League Baseball season is arguably The Florida Marlins' position at the top of National League East standings, and Jeremy Hermida (OF, FLA) has certainly played a key role in this success. Once one of the top "can't miss" prospects in baseball, Hermida is batting at nearly a .300 clip, an especially positive note in light of his career .231 BA prior to the All-Star break. What does the rest of this season hold for Jeremy Hermida? Let's ask the BPI.
Brandon Kruse - Batting Average Buyers Guide - May 16
First-Time .300 Hitters
Even with a quarter of the season in the books, it's still early enough that many of those lofty April batting averages have not quite come all the way back to normalcy. There's still a lot of .300 hitters out there, and a fair number of unexpected names among them. Today we'd like to focus on those first-time .300 hitters and analyze their performance. Based on their current and historical skills, which ones have a legitimate shot at batting .300 this year, and which ones are likely to come up short?
Rob Gordon – Minor League News and Scouting – May 17
Minor League News and Scouting
This week the Minor League News and Scouting takes another look around the minors to see who is hot, who is not, and who is on the shelf. We also take a look at some of the top prospects who are on the verge of making the jump to the majors. [an error occurred while processing this directive]
Also online now...
Today's Call-ups
Daily Stats and Projections
Daily Hotlists
Minor League News
...and tons more
Everything you need to take your teams to a 2008 title!
On Deck
- MARKET WATCH: Daily news analysis
- RON SHANDLER: Quack 2008, part 3
- RESEARCH & ANALYSIS: Rate expectations for relievers
- SPECULATOR: Hidden injuries
- BUYERS GUIDES: Skills assessment
- MINORS: News, injuries, ones to watch
- SALARY CAP GAMING: Pace analysis
- ... and much more!
